Sunday, January 3, 2016

What If We Get Unlimited Cheap Isotopes of Our Choice Like Plutonium 238 or Cobalt 60?

http://ift.tt/hZ0OVi


A guest article by Joseph Friedlander

I recall a Poul Anderson science fiction novel with teleportation being one of its' premises and one of the plot points was the main station was on the Moon because you could teleport millions of tons of radium into existence which might pose a huge danger to life on Earth. (IIRC-- and it has been years since I have seen that book, http://ift.tt/1Ri4ZHb)
TheEnemyStars.jpg

In the scientific speculation that underlies the story, Humanity has reached out to the stars in ships that move at half the speed of light. At that speed the ships will take years, decades, even centuries to reach their destinations. And yet the ships' crews serve month-long tours of duty, teleporting to and from their bases on Earth and other worlds instantaneously through what Anderson calls a mattercaster.  
...if the crew cannot find a roughly asteroid-sized body to provide feedstock for the mattercaster, the Exploration Authority will not be able to teleport enough mercury to the ship to provide enough propellant for Southern Cross to resume her journey to Alpha Crucis.
and perhaps I am not recalling correctly, it would eat raw mass on one end --the feedstock--and the mattercaster would weave it into the desired material-- mercury in the case of ion engine reaction mass but potentially millions of tons of radium in case of an enemy hack (thus dangerous, thus located on the Moon)

Incidentally a note about Poul Anderson's "millions of tons" of radium-- say 2.02 million tons would be 2.02 trillion grams which would be 2.1 trillion curies. If teleported into existence an unfortunate observer might or might not have time to scream at a distance of 100 meters 2000000000000 Ci of Ra-226 at 100 Meters before the 1.036895E+008 rads per hour claimed his life.http://ift.tt/1Hbodpz

At 1000 meters away, the observing wretch would be heir to 4.546089E+004 rads per hour, pretty much a lethal dose a minute.  If he could  parachute jump down a giant borehole and rapidly get out of the way I can see him making it into a radiation ward. Wow.  What an intriguing concept.  I liked the book as it was. but the missing other story about the 2 million tons of radium Soooprise! might have been even better!


for those wanting to play with 'fire'--Rad Pro Calculator

http://ift.tt/1Ri4ZHf
http://ift.tt/1Hbodpz


OK, maybe Poul Anderson wanted a lunar base and got one for free in the story as a side detail. But a side effect of that story's tech setting that  I only thought of later was (obviously) the availability of essentially unlimited amounts of isotopes. Over the years this has bugged me enough that I am writing this to clear my head of the question.  So the grand speculation of this article is: What if we could get unlimited amounts of isotopes cheaply to power all kinds of atomic 50's  style visions?




1958 Ford Nucleon



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GZgYlMekEU


http://ift.tt/PS13QX

http://ift.tt/1O2MdPG

 http://ift.tt/1Ri51iq

The well capitalized and subsidized design work that produced the 1955 Lincoln Futura http://ift.tt/1Ri4ZHk (the 1966 Batmobile  base model   http://ift.tt/1O2MdPK) and the 1958 Ford Nucleon-- when Japanese car designers would make pilgrimages to America to learn the height of car design art--

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9v3lIN9EOY


In this article we discuss what happens if we get unlimited availability cheap isotope power.  Radioactive isotopes which can decay spontaneously-- unlike most reactor designs they theoretically need no active control.  They are used in RTGs-- radioisotope thermoelectric generators.

 From
http://ift.tt/1mYRc5m

A pellet of 238PuO2 to be used in an RTG for either the Cassini or Galileo mission. This photo was taken after insulating the pellet under a graphite blanket for several minutes and then removing the blanket. The pellet is glowing red hot because of the heat generated by radioactive decay (primarily α). The initial output is 62 watts.

In that Wikipedia picture above note that the watts/gram of pure 238 is .56 so 62 watts means that little thing has 110.7 grams of plutonium 238 in it.
http://ift.tt/1mYRc5m
http://ift.tt/1NTsXX4
http://ift.tt/1ChDVmF

 SNAP-27 RTG deployed by the astronauts of Apollo 14 identical to the one lost in the reentry of Apollo 13

Use of RTGs in space exploration http://ift.tt/1nvK31B


As Poul Anderson pointed out, isotope-heat based nuclear power is actually potentially quite dangerous.  Before we discuss the applications of what we would do if we have huge tonnages of cheap hot isotopes on demand we should note the various properties of the isotopes under discussion.

First of all we have to discuss biological safety.  The problem is, many of these isotopes would kill if assimilated in the body. Some can kill at a distance if not sheilded because they emit gamma radiation.  Some like Cesium-137 are both  bone-seekers and gamma emitters.  Traditional nuclear reactors produce large amounts of cesium 137 http://ift.tt/1Ri52CO and Strontium 90. http://ift.tt/1O2Me6c

 These are great heat sources--- each roughly 5% of the waste in ordinary nuclear power plants but boneseeker isotopes and very dangerous indeed if ingested. They end up in the bones and the victim gets hammered by radiation from within far more than if they were not biologically concentrated. A megawatt-year  (fissioning 400 grams of uranium-235),  produces 9 grams of strontium-90 (about 2,000 curies), and 14  grams of cesium-137 (also about 2,000 curies).

Strontium 90 does not emit large amounts of gammas-- therefore much more portable without as heavy shielding. Cesium 137 does http://ift.tt/1Ri51yS
and is useful in food sterilization  http://ift.tt/1O2Me6d among other uses.
Nasa sterilizes astronaut food at 44 kilogray (sterilizing frozen meat for NASA astronauts doses of 44 kGy ) which is 44 kilogray = 4400000 rad or about 7000 lethal doses for a man.  
http://ift.tt/1mtaXKg

Because of these lower shielding requirements, the ex-USSR made over 1,000 strontium-90 sources to power remote lighthouses, radio relays, and scattered electronic installations that had to cope with cold, darkness and horrific weather that made resupply very expensive.

At times in these polar contexts the waste heat was an asset rather than a liability; (traditional RTG designs are very inefficient, only a few percent of the heat goes into producing electrical power)

Because of the fact that they compose together about 10% of nuclear fission waste from today's uranium power reactors, these two isotopes could form the basis of very widespread nuclear isotopic power units. In an all uranium reactor powered world,  with cheap recycling of wastes (good luck) and the present waste distribution with no enhanced burnup (such as you'd see in thorium molten salt reactors) you could probably use around  15-30 thousand tons of fissionables a year.


see my interview with David Leblanc for more
http://ift.tt/Y7oCT6
assuming 100% of world energy a little high (lets leave at least some space for hydro, biomass, wind and solar!). But yes, 15,000 GWe would only consume 15,000 tonnes of thorium per year, but you are missing a zero in regards to how much U235, by Robert Hargraves' numbers it is 15,000 tonnes, not 1500. Starting on U235 is not quite as efficient as U233 though so to be conservative I'd probably double that value to 30,000 tonnes.

Given 10% output of these two wastes, you would have about 1500 tons a year each of Sr-90 and Cs-137 to play with-- not unlimited by any means in terms of the number of remote sites that could use essentially free power.

3000 tons of the Sr-90 and Cs-137 would constitute a heat source of .96 watts/gram
and .42 watts/gram respectively so 3000 tons (3 billion grams) would yield around 3 gigawatts and 1.2 gigawatts of portable power respectively.

Yet such dispersion would be dangerous from the point of view of "orphaned sources" http://ift.tt/1O2Me6f  ie when they are old and lost track of -- they are long lived enough that they just don't vanish but remain, potentially outliving even a quite robust container...an  unspeakable environmental danger in case of releases.

For example a mere 5 kilograms could pollute 88 square kilometers at 57 grams per km2.  You couldn't grow agricultural products for direct sale. Grams per square kilometer don't sound like much but doses of many curies tell you that this is dirty bomb territory.  The table below shows you that 7.2 milligrams of strontium 90 is a curie, so 57000 / 7.2 = 7916 curies per square km.
3000 tons is 3 million kg so we are talking about 3 million kg / 5 kg = 600000 square kilometers polluted  t 7916  curies per square kilometer that is 293 terabequerels) 293 trillion individual decays per second


For comparison, 57 grams fission products (from nuclear weapon FAQ below) causes 30 billion, not million, curies (rapidly decaying) for a brief time-- this is because of the huge mix of very short lived isotopes.
http://ift.tt/hnXCSP
Radioactive isotopes are usually measured in terms of curies. A curie is the quantity of radioactive material that undergoes 3.7x10^10 decays/sec (equal to 1 g of radium-226). More recently the SI unit bequerel has become common in scientific literature, one bequerel is 1 decay/sec . The fission of 57 grams of material produces 3x10^23 atoms of fission products (two for each atom of fissionable material). One minute after the explosion this mass is undergoing decays at a rate of 10^21 disintegrations/sec (3x10^10 curies). It is estimated that if these products were spread over 1 km^2, then at a height of 1 m above the ground one hour after the explosion the radiation intensity would be 7500 rads/hr.
How much cesium 137 was released in Chernobyl? 2.5 megacuries.


http://ift.tt/1Ri52CP
A retrospective view of the Chernobyl accident of Apr 26, 1986 assesses the total radiation release at about 100 megaCuries or 4 x 10e18 becquerels, including some 2.5 MCi of cesium-137. The cesium is the most serious release in terms of long term consequences. The total release was around 4% of the total accumulated activity of the core and compares to a release of 15 Ci at Three Mile Island. The release was then about 7 million times that at TMI. Anspaugh, et al. suggest that essentially all the noble gases and about half of the volatile elements (iodine-131, cesium-134 and cesium-137) were released . The cesium release from all of the atmospheric weapons tests is estimated to be about 30 MCi. The noble gas releases were estimated by Levi to be 45 MCi of xenon-133 and 5 MCi of krypton-85. 

3000 tons of Cesium 137 of which (table below) 12 milligrams is a curie. 
A billion milligrams in a metric ton so 12 tons of Cesium 137 is a billion curies. 12000 tons would be a trillion curies so 3000 tons would be 250 billion curies or 100,000 Chernobyls. If evenly distributed (it wouldn't be) it could pollute to exclusion zone standards the entire land area of the Earth.

Size of red Chernobyl exclusion zone in the picture below is around 2600 square kilometers or 1000 or so square miles. This is an arbitrary standard but set low for safety.  http://ift.tt/13loMKh

 Chernobyl Cesium 137 only was 2.5 megacuries so the physical quantity of  Cesium 137 released in Chernobyl was 1/400th of that or about 12000kg/400 or a mere 30 kg of Cesium 137 producing this nasty map. For comparison there are said to be 150 million curies of Cesium 137 in the Indian Point holding pool in the eastern United states.

 40 curies a square km is about 104 curies a square mile. Note that  the exclusion zone here is by no means a death zone.  A point mass of 30 kg of Cesium 137 (the entire Chernobyl release) all 2.5 million curies of it at 100 meters would give you a dose of 54.9 rads an hour. It would kill you to camp out there but walking by quickly once would not be a problem. The real problem would be biological integration and uptake of cesium compounds which would then try to become part of your skeleton and fry you from within.
http://ift.tt/1p90GQe  Pripyat area site explaining reality on the ground
 Russia applies a normative of Cesium 137 content in milk, which should not exceed 100 Bq per liter. In Norway, they use 370 Bq per 1 kilo for baby food. Therefore, in Russia, milk containing 110 Bq is considered radioactive, while in Norway this level is one third of the allowed concentration.

Fukushima release http://ift.tt/1O2Me6j
http://ift.tt/1O2Me6l Study showing that the cost of cleaning up fallout to various levels hugely dependent upon cleanup  standards. 

Note that the half life of 30 years or so is very long in terms of cleaning up after an accidental release. And obviously we are talking many tens of thousands of years after plutonium 239 until it decays away in case of a spill.
The shorter half life is far preferable.The ideal would be a single isotope with a half life of about a year. A spill would then self-clean in a single generation or two at most. That is in line with the ability of our civilization to guard disused sites.

An example of a very short lived isotope is Polonium 210. Unfortunately this has a rare precursor, bismuth, and in any case is quite toxic (google polonium assassination) and a volatile form. The power output is amazing, though (see the table) 141 watts a gram!  2 million tons of that mattercasted into existence would make  your day with 282 terawatts of radiant power!  Think it would volatilize?

Tritium is interesting with aheat output of (PS = 0.33 W/g). so 3 kg (28.86 megacuries) is 1 kilowatt. But tritiated water http://ift.tt/1mtaWGb is such a health hazard that we don't consider it further here even if we got it for free by mattercaster.

A sample isotope hunt sing the Wise Uranium Project site neutron activation calculator  http://ift.tt/1Ri52CT we can see for example the effects of neutron bombarding various isotopes in this case arsenic 
Neutron flux = 10.00e30  per cm2s
Irradiation = 1 s;  Delay = 0 h 

    Original      Reaction      Activation       Half-
    Nuclide                     & Decay (~>)     Life
                                Products


Arsenic:

          As-75    (n,2n) ->           As-74    (17.76 d)

          As-75    (n,3n) ->           As-73    (80.30 d)

          As-75    (n,p)  ->           Ge-75    (82.78 m)

          As-75    (n,A)  ->           Ga-72    (14.10 h)

It's a complicated subject because each daughter isotope must have a endpoint of decay too. Notice that the Germanium-75 generated above has almost a 7 year half life leading to 210 years for a 30 generation decay time and that is assuming all daughter products of THAT are stable. However, if you could isolate all the arsenic from the Germanium then you might have a shortlived isotope package capable of great power for amonth but you wouldn't have a remote-site power pack that could endure for decades.  You would have to FedEx the units and switch them out quickly.  This briefly touches on the selection of the optimum isotope for the job.
Example of a bad spill requiring 30 generation decay:
Initial exposure: 
1 lethal dose per minute  If you sprint you have a bare chance to live.
10 generations of decay later (10 half lives) 1 lethal dose  in 1000 minutes You could walk by once and probably max your lifetime worker exposure limit.

20 generations of decay later (20 half lives) 1 lethal dose  in 1 million minutes 1.9 yrs so you could enter for a few minutes a week.
30 generations of decay later (30 half lives) 1 lethal dose  in in 1 billion minutes 1900 yrs
so totally safe to live there.
10 x 30 year half life is 300 years, 20 is 600 years, 30 900 years.

But with Cobalt 60 instead of Cesium 137 the half life is a fifth as long, and any traces would vanish five tines faster.
Here is the isotope table:
http://ift.tt/1PshukP
Isotope Half life              Mass of 1 curie               Specific activity (Ci/g)
232Th 1.405×1010 years 9.1 tonnes             1.1×10−7 (110,000 pCi/g, 0.11 µCi/g)
238U 4.471×109 years 2.977 tonnes     3.4×10−7 (340,000 pCi/g, 0.34 µCi/g)
40K 1.25×109 years        140 kg                7.1×10−6 (7,100,000 pCi/g, 7.1 µCi/g)
235U 7.038×108 years 463 kg            2.2×10−6 (2,160,000 pCi/g, 2.2 µCi/g)
129I 15.7×106 years         5.66 kg         0.00018
99Tc 211×103 years          58 g                 0.017
239Pu 24.11×103 years 16 g                      0.063
240Pu 6563 years        4.4 g                      0.23
226Ra 1601 years        1.01 g                  0.99
241Am 432.6 years       0.29 g                  3.43
14C 5730 years                 0.22 g                    4.5
238Pu 88 years                       59 mg          17
137Cs 30.17 years           12 mg         83
90Sr   28.8 years                  7.2 mg       139
241Pu 14 years                 9.4 mg         106
60Co 1925 days          883 μg     1132
210Po 138 days           223 μg       4484
3H       12.32 years          104 μg     9621
131I      8.02 days                 8 μg               125000
123I       13 hours                0.5 μg      2000000
And remember that these with yellow highlighting are boneseeker isotopes. Even in a engineering fantasy article like this I don't see them being used by choice for widespread peaceful uses on Earth.  For powering rovers on Mars, you could totally see them.30 kilograms of Cesium 137 would give off .42 watts a gram, so 12600 watts thermal from that mass. If you could make a supercritical CO2 turbine with the heat you could literally have planet wide range for such a rover (if 25% efficient you could have 3 kilowatts electric or hydraulic to play with-- you'd need plenty of shielding (maybe mounted on a trailer 100 meters ahead of the main unit with a tow cable plus a point shield) on the other hand you could probably have amazing gamma ray spectometry from your free point source.

Basically a UNMANNED martian rover with rad-shielded electronics could use it-- and power for a crane, for a sampling arm-- endless possibilities. 3000 tons would let us build 100,000 such rovers, (probably from a factory on one of the Martian Moons, installing the Earth-exported-good riddance- RTG nuclear material up there) and that is enough so each rover would only have to probe around 1440 of the 144.8 million km² of the martian surface. It is plausible that every obviously interesting target on the entire Martian surface could be probed that way, mining samples taken--we could survey the entire planet.


http://ift.tt/1O2MemBNASA chose to use a nuclear power source because solar power alternatives did not meet the full range of the mission's requirements. Only the radioisotope  allows full-time communication with the rover during its atmospheric entry, descent and landing regardless of the landing site. And the nuclear powered rover can go farther, travel to more places, last longer, and power and heat a larger and more capable scientific payload compared to the solar power alternative NASA studied.
"You can operate with solar panels on Mars, you just can't operate everywhere," said Johnson. "This gives you an opportunity to go anywhere you want on the planet, not be limited to the areas that have sunlight and not have to put the rover to sleep at night."


Read more at: http://ift.tt/1O2MemD




If we have Martian colonization we could even consider huge and heavy RTG units for manned exploration use.  I can see a hot air dirigible kept aloft at day by the sun (a solar montgolfiere) and by night by RTG waste heat.  The manned cabin could be a kilometer below the lifting bag for natural distance shielding. On Earth, a typical two-burner hot air balloon can be around 36 million BTU an hour or around 10.4 megawatts of power. http://ift.tt/1yKUAez  That is about 30 tons of Cesium-137 for the Martian balloon if the same power factor applies. http://ift.tt/1O2MemF  But strontium-90 would be a better choice because of more power nad lighter shielding.

Remember that the gravity is less (as is the atmospheric pressure) so conditions would be utterly different.  If needing to be sufficiently thin (and it probably will be) it might lift well in the day but lose heat rapidly at night.  We can imagine a multi-layered balloon with 10 layers of gasbags around the main lifting cell to insulate the heat losses. The detailed design of such a balloon with a hot gamma emitter is interesting but beyond the scope of this article. At the very least a well insulated RTG well under a base to provide unstoppable heat and power would be a most welcome asset in the Martian polar night. Better yet would be several in case of a system failure in one.

Back on Earth, however, the dangers of boneseeker isotopes' escape into the human crop raising environment are such that for this article, in place of strontium 90, we consider plutonium 238.  In place of cesium 137 we consider cobalt 60.   Are these harmless? No, and no.


Special health hazards of PU 238 or why you really want a good container for your power isotopes...
http://ift.tt/1mYRc5m
The plutonium-238 used in these RTGs has a half-life of 87.74 years, in contrast to the 24,110 year half-life of plutonium-239 used in nuclear weapons and reactors. A consequence of the shorter half-life is that plutonium-238 is about 275 times more radioactive than plutonium-239 (i.e. 17.3 curies (640 GBq)/g compared to 0.063 curies (2.3 GBq)/g[24]). For instance, 3.6 kg of plutonium-238 undergoes the same number of radioactive decays per second as 1 tonne of plutonium-239. Since the morbidity of the two isotopes in terms of absorbed radioactivity is almost exactly the same,[25] plutonium-238 is around 275 times more toxic by weight than plutonium-239.

 But, Plutonium 238 is an alpha emitter, and easily shielded for lightweight applications. Cobalt-60 a heavy gamma emitter, but if sufficiently cheap might give lots of power for heavy shielding applications like submarines.


A great reference on RTGs, Space and isotopes--NEEP 602 Course Notes (Spring 2000) 

Nuclear Power in Space
G.L. Kulcinski, Instructor 
http://ift.tt/1Ri52Tr

ray power

rtg specific activity
curies gram and curies watt
Here is a specific activities listing:
http://ift.tt/1Ri525R
 listing of specific activities, in units of "curies per gram" for a variety of radionuclides. For this listing the elements are shown alphabetically.  The specific activities are written in scientific notation (i.e., 7.2E1 is equal to 7.2 x 10, or 72).

curies/gram




Not sure about the curium data in the table below---JF
Polonium-210  alpha decay .38 yr half life 141.0 watts/gram
Curium-244     a           .45              120.0 watts/gram
Cerium-144     beta,gamma   .78               26.0 watts/gram
Thorium-228     a           1.90             170.0 watts/gram
Cobalt 60      beta, gamma  5.25             17.4 watts/gram
Curium-242      a           18                2.8 watts/gram
Strontium-90  beta, gamma   28                 .96 watts/gram
Cesium 137     beta, gamma 30                   .42 watts/gram
Plutonium-238     alpha     89                   .56 watts/gram




Pu238 advantages http://ift.tt/1NTsXX4
are seen above-- low shielding, reasonable output,   .56 watts/gram-- 88 year long half life.
Current crazy disadvantage-- the cost a quarter  megacurie of Plutonium 238 puts out 8400 watts thermal and alleged market price would be 75 to 150 million dollars. I am guessing this is about 15 kilograms.
*Pu-238 specific activity is 17 kCi/kg; decay produces 560 Wt/kg, estimated “price” of $5-10M/kghttp://ift.tt/1Ri525X
250 kCi of Pu-238 8400 watts-thermal $75-150M**
Plutonium-238 has a specific power of 0.56 watts/gm or 560 watts per kilogram,
so in theory all you would need is 470 / 560 = 0.84 kilograms. Alas, the thermoelectric
generator which converts the thermal energy to electric energy has an efficiency of only a
few percent. If the thermoelectric efficiency is 5%, the plutonium RTG has an effective
specific power of 560 x 0.05 = 28 watts per kilogram (0.036 kilogram per watt or 36
kg/kW). This means you will need an entire 17 kilos of plutonium to produce 470 watts.
Currently RTGs have an alpha of about 200 kg/kW (though there is a design on
the drawing board that should get about 100 kg/kW). . So an RTG with the theoretical
maximum output of 1 kilowatt would obviously mass 200 kilograms.
Plutonium-238 needs less than 2.5 mm of shielding, and in many cases no
shielding is needed as the casing itself is adequate.

The thermal power of Pu-238 costs $10,000 a gram ($10 million a kilogram)
0.56 watts/gm  for 88 years at the end of which power has declined to half.
Treat it as .56 watts/gm for 44 years and nothing after
rough figure of  24.64 watt years per gram.
At current USA  home electricity not heat prices (10x AS EXPENSIVE AS THE CHEAPEST HEAT) $1 a watt year is typical
so if it cost $25 a gram you would  be paying a typical fair price for convenient power.
$25000 a kilogram maximum plausible for "normal" commercial uses.
At $10 million a kilogram it is about 400 times too expensive. (As we shall see below, it is easily plausible to reduce that number by at least a factor of 30 even with today's technology)
To be competitive with the cheapest heat (coal) it should be at least 10 times cheaper still.
that is for the entire price of the fuel preloaded and neglecting the time value of money.


In the space RTG pdf page 19 http://ift.tt/1Ri52Tr the future cost of Cobalt 60 (presumably given reactor breeding) is given as $280 a gram. (incidentally there Pu 238 should be makable on a mass basis today for around $300 a gram not  $10,000.  Current prices are high because of politically dictated engineering decisions taken years ago)

The Wiki page http://ift.tt/1NTsXX4  says Reactor-grade plutonium is not useful for producing Pu-238 for RTGs because difficult isotopic separation would be needed.
Pure plutonium-238 is prepared by neutron irradiation of neptunium-237,[citation needed] one of the minor actinides that can be recovered from spent nuclear fuel during reprocessing, or by the neutron irradiation of americium in a reactor. In both cases, the targets are subjected to a chemical treatment, including dissolution in nitric acid to extract the plutonium-238. A 100 kg sample of light water reactor fuel that has been irradiated for three years contains only about 700 grams of neptunium-237, and the neptunium must be extracted selectively. Significant amounts of pure Pu-238 could also be produced in a thorium fuel cycle.
But there may be ways around each of those limitations, to be explored in this and future articles.

 The thermal power of Cobalt 60 --1130 curies a gram 17.4 watts a gram   http://ift.tt/1Ri52D3 costs  $280 a gram ($280,000 a kilogram) by one estimate.
 17.4 watts/gram for 5.24 years at the end of which power has declined to half.
Treat it as 17.4 watts/gram for 2.62 years and nothing after
rough figure of  45.588 watt years per gram. (about twice that of  Pu-238)
At current USA  home electricity not heat prices (10x AS EXPENSIVE AS THE CHEAPEST HEAT) $1 a watt year is typical
so if it cost $45 a gram you would  be paying a typical fair price for convenient power.
$45,000 a kilogram maximum for "normal" commercial uses.
At $280,000 a kilogram it is about 6.2 times too expensive.
To be competitive with the cheapest heat (coal) it should be at least 10 times cheaper still.
that is for the entire price of the fuel preloaded neglecting the time value of money.

Because of the radiation in gammas, a few kilograms would be as radioactive as all the Cesium-137 (30 kg) of Chernobyl. Cobalt-60 is used to sterilize bugs, food and so on and needs a heavy radiation shield.

Plutonium 238 is just an incredibly neat isotope and as long as it remains in its thin shield totally safe  The problems then are accidental release and deliberate release-- and the possible added worry of someone trying to make a nuclear bomb out of it. According to this PDF  http://ift.tt/1O2MeDc

 “Virtually any combination of plutonium isotopes -- the different forms of an element having different numbers of neutrons in their nuclei -- can be used to make a nuclear weapon... At the lowest level of sophistication, a potential proliferating state or subnational group using designs and technologies no more sophisticated than those used in first-generation nuclear weapons could build a nuclear weapon from reactor-grade plutonium that would have an assured, reliable yield of one or a few kilotons (and a probable yield significantly higher than that)
Isotope Critical Mass (kg) Half Life (years) Decay Heat (watts/kg) Neutron Generation (neutrons/g-sec)  Pu-238 10                                      88 560 2600 
Pu-239 10                                        24,000  1.9 0.02 
Pu-240 40                                           6,600 6.8 900 
Pu-241 13                                                14 4.2 0.05 
Pu-242 89                                        380,000 0.1 1700 
Sorry about the formatting but it didn't copy cleanly. Note the decay heat problem of trying to build a bomb with 238 (duh) but also the neutron generation rate. http://ift.tt/1O2MeDe

I would think predetonation would exclude it but the quote above in bold seems to indicate not.  So there may be a proliferation problem with 238 but it is far more detectable than 239.  We will neglect it here but could be a show stopper in real life.


Supposing Pu-238 is usable in terrorist explosions?
Yes-- but.   But--you have got to discreetly  haul a heat source that is very hard to cool with the kind of discreet covering you are counting on to conceal it. Eventually it will advertise itself. The police will come.
If you decide to engineer a bomb-- more complications---- there is a learning curve and handling red-hot isotope is not the most forgiving place to learn your bomb making trade.
If your bomb doesn't go off with more than a fizzle you have a slightly dirty bomb but you have lost lots of material.
If it goes off successfully you have a manhunt after you.

With Cobalt-60 as a widely deployed isotope you lose most of the elegant Plutonium-238 man portable applications because of the huge shielding requirements.

I should mention some of these because they are just so cool.

  • Plutonium teapot for the polar regions. Go hiking with this baby and it keeps you warm. Scoop up snow and it melts it for fresh water, wait a little longer and you can wash your hands at the North Pole with hot water, longer still and you have some hot tea to drink.  At night it keeps your tent warm.  Expensive?  What does it cost to cure frostbite or to tend to the medical conditions of those who lose limbs to mountain and polar cold? 
  • Plutonium diving warmsuits  
you can of course wear one of these on your arctic expedition as well.radioisotope backpack heater capable of furnishing around 300 to 400 thermal watts for maintaining body temperature. In addition to use for underwater swimmers, the unit may be used by downed pilots or suits for land operations in the Arctic and Antarctic.
http://ift.tt/1Ri52mm
  • Plutonium bedwarmers,anyone?  Sounds like a joke but welcome in the mountains or polar regions.
  • Plutonium hot stove/plate for camping
  • Plutonium water distiller for camping, the deserts or spacecraft (waste recycling) http://ift.tt/1O2Mcew
  • You can probably list hundreds of uses in the general spirit of this-- anyplace you want unlimited portable power for a generation or more, ideally in the form of heat, independent from the sun cycle, fuel deliveries and totally man-portable.  
  • A laptop with a battery that doesn't die.
  • And atomic cars in the spirit of the Ford Nucleon above! 

Many comments on Scott Lowther's The Unwanted Blog on this general topic (atomic 50s visions in the alternate world of the movie 2001)

http://ift.tt/1O2Mcey


    Side roads on the way from 1968 to 2001: 5a 6 comments

let’s call it 215 kilowatts, same as the Tesla Roadster. If we assume RTG power, like the atomic pen, then the car will have a pretty massive battery pack...Even so, at 0.39 watts per gram this system would require at least 551 kilos (1212 pounds) of plutonium 238. Clearly not feasible.

    Avatar
    Simon666
    • 9 hours ago

    The 215 kW figure you gave is peak power. It is utterly useless to design a nuclear battery for this, as when the car is not using peak power, you would need to dump substantial amount of thermal energy.

    If we assume a car is not driven more than 100 km a day on average (most people drive less) and energy consumption is 15 kWh / 100 km, then you'd only need 15 kWh of electric battery (less than a Nissan Leaf) and 15.000 W * 3600 s / ( 24 h * 3600 s / h ) = 625 W of continuous power.

    At 0.39 watts per gram of Pu 238 and assuming 10% efficient conversion of thermal to electric you'd only need 16 kilogram of Pu 238 for a nuclear electric car and a small organic rankine cycle or something to produce only 650 W(electric) continuously, which need not weigh or even cost much either.

    You could then add some spare electric capacity. At night you could usually dump the excess electrical energy from the battery in the grid or top up the battery in case you've driven a long range.

    It is technically completely feasible (hell, you could even make a nuclear powered Tesla Model S, space enough in the frunk for the nuclear generator) but kilogram quantities of Pu 238 would still not be cheap of course, let alone production capacity in the entire world would be sufficient for a small number of vehicles only.
 

  •  One of the most interesting uses is for remote power. Nowadays you will often see a solar panel near a remote very low power bit of electronics that previously would demand a battery or diesel generator installation and yearly maintenence visitors.   But what if there were extended periods of darkness, cold, horrible weather (polar regions, Mars, etc)  
  • I recall one story of the CIA subsidizing a mountaineer on his way to the Himalayas to plant an RTG to power some remote observing equipment within monitoring sight-lines of denied territory in Tibet, again from the context 1960s. Here is a slightly alarmist account, yep, 1966.  http://ift.tt/1Ri53a4
  • An account of the US NAVY using one RTG for a sub monitoring program-- in this case I consider the real miracle to be not the device but the fact that different bureaucracies could go from zero to delivered in 10 days-- something that could happen in the 1960s but is hard to imagine today.http://ift.tt/1O2MceA
  • Remote defense installations in Alaska http://ift.tt/1Ri52mt
  • In the late 60s and early 70s plutonium powered heart pacemakers were deployed, a total of 250 or so. http://ift.tt/1Ri53qk
The peak was probably around 1971-73 just as the modern lithium pacemaker was beginning to be deployed.  http://ift.tt/1O2MeDk  This by definition is almost the most portable you can get.  As I kid I read DC comics about Metallo, the man whose head was kept alive by a robot body with a uranium or kyptonite powered heart.  Naturally I confused a mere nuclear pacemaker with an actual plutonium powered heart. Could you really live forever, if the heart never stopped beating as the comic claimed?  I wondered at age 11.
Answer to younger self:  No. Only one of the causes of death has to get you, if the robot heart keeps beating after that it don't help a whole lot.  And on that morbid note, I should mention that at least a few (battery not RTG) pacemakers were given an inadvertent  endurance test inside a crematorium http://ift.tt/OhS77k
What happens if a Pu-238 pacemaker gets cremated http://ift.tt/1O2MceF
    However this page http://ift.tt/1Ri53qk says that The hard titanium case is designed to withstand any credible event including gunshots and cremation.
  • http://ift.tt/1O2MceI  Here is a woman who has been saved 5 operations over 30+ years by using a plutonium rather than battery powered pacemaker.  You can say she could have more modern pacemakers every few years instead but you can imagine civilizational resets as occurred in Russia a generation ago or worse where the people who have an atomic pacemaker go on living and the pacemakers that are not available becaus eof blockade/sanctions/civil unrest don't get installed and the people die.

If we could have a choice of unlimited quantities of Plutonium 238 or Cobalt 60 very few people would choose Cobalt 60 yet the proliferation concern may yet force the choice to Cobalt 60. What would be the consequences?

However much we might miss the man-portable applications,  having an Cobalt-60 air-independent heavy power source underground, underwater in the polar reasons and in space for industrial purposes would be very helpful at a reasonable price.


  • Mining without using up oxygen for heavy mining equipment and fume-immune engines,
  • Deep tunneling and drilling (the famed subterrene of science fiction)
  • Lunar polar ice melting and refining prior to a manned landing to have guaranteed water and return fuel
  • Displacing the 7% or so of petroleum burned by ships (certainly heavy enough to mount the armor)
  • Powering long distance heavy vehicles for engineering and military purposes-- locomotives, tanks, etc with a greatly reduced logistics chain.
  • Powering bases outposts and depots in the arctic, remote locations, etc.
If cobalt-60 were available by the ton and constituted a heat source of 17.4 watts/gram then you could get 10 megawatts plus of heat plus about 5 of electricity out of it for say a couple of years.(It would also per ton constitute a radiation source of 1130 curies a gram or 1.1 gigacuries a ton. Unshielded that gives you 1.012890E+005 rads an hour at 100 meters distance. http://ift.tt/1Hbodpz   Yet with 6 meters of water shielding the dose at 100 meters would be 9.176362E-010 rads an hour. A concrete shielded earth berm would be adequate though for security reasons you probably would want to embed the thing in a hundred tons of concrete with a red radiation trefoil sticking out of it on a pole.

 If it sold for $5 million for that ton It would pay to use it today for many applications 
Could it be made that cheaply?

Imagine a world where we could reliably trigger D-D fusion 

and have no shortage of neutrons available for isotope formation.
Thorium 232 to U 233


mathrm{n}+{}_{ 90}^{232}mathrm{Th}rightarrow {}_{ 90}^{233} mathrm{Th} xrightarrow{beta^-} {}_{ 91}^{233}mathrm{Pa} xrightarrow{beta^-} {}_{ 92}^{233}mathrm{U}

U 238 to Plutonium 239

mathrm {^{238}_{ 92}U + _{0}^{1}n longrightarrow _{ 92}^{239}U {xrightarrow[{23.5 min}]{beta ^{-}}} _{ 93}^{239}Np {xrightarrow[{2.3565 d}]{beta ^{-}}} _{ 94}^{239}Pu}

Cobalt 59 to 60
59Co + n → 60Co

29 kg of deuterium fused would enable production of  about 115 kilos of Co-60 2.4 mt equiv

252 kilos of deuterium fused would enable production of  about 1 ton of Co-60  20.8 mt equiv

Hot an efficient energy bucket to say the least! Treat it as 17.4 watts/gram for 2.62 years and nothing after
rough figure of  45.588 watt years per gram. ( 45.5 mw yrs per ton thay is 398580 mwhrs
http://ift.tt/1Ri53qu

342.94646271511 kT
Conversion base : 1 MWh = 0.0008604206500956 kT Conversion base : 1 kT = 1162.2222222222 MWh
20.8 mt equiv /0.343= 1.6% efficient
on other hand trading 252 kilos of  deuterium  at $500 a  kg worth $126,000 getting a million plus in power would pay if the processing was say only a couple of hundred thousand dollars more.  Some versions of Project Pacer held promise for that level of costs (one version had the net cost per thermonuclear device be a mere $1000---I hope to write an article about Project Pacer soon with more on this.)


The nuclear weapons FAQ says this on the Mike Device, the only tested D-D bomb:
The total fusion yield was thus 2.4 megatons, which corresponds to the efficient thermonuclear combustion of 29.1 kg of deuterium (172 liters), or the inefficient combustion of 41.6 kg (249 liters). The total fission yield was 7.9 megatons, the fission of 465 kg of uranium.


The central problem is that however easy it gets to generate Cobalt-60 it gets even easier to turn Thorium-232 to U-233 and Uranium-238 to Plutonium-239 (NOT 238 but rather prime nuclear bomb material)
And not just that but four times the yield in terms of kilos--


1kg D can transmute by neutron flux only 4 kg of Co-59 to Co-60

but 16 kg Uranium 238 int  16 kg of Plutonium-239

29 kg of deuterium fused would enable production of  about 115 kilos of Co-60 2.4 megatons equivalent
252 kilos of deuterium fused would enable production of  about 1 ton of Co-60  20.8 megatons equivalent
29 kg of deuterium fused would enable production of  about 465 kilos of Plutonium-239 2.4 megatons equivalent

252 kilos of deuterium fused would enable production of  about 4 tons of Plutonium-239  20.8 megatons equivalent

And not just that but you could get more power out of the Plutonium-239 if completely fissioned, equivalent of around 17.4 kilotons per kg  than  you could get from the Cobalt-60 if completely decayed. which as we saw before was only 0.342 kt per kg. That is 50 times more energy per mass of generated product and about 200 times more energy per neutron of D-D fusion realized.
Convenient Energy Content Approximations
Fission of U-233:  17.8 kt/kg
Fission of U-235:  17.6 kt/kg
Fission of Pu-239: 17.3 kt/kg
Fusion of pure deuterium: 82.2 kt/kg
Fusion of tritium and deuterium (50/50): 80.4 kt/kg
Fusion of lithium-6 deuteride: 64.0 kt/kg
Fusion of lithium-7 deuteride
Total conversion of matter to energy: 21.47 Mt/kg
Fission of 1.11 g U-235: 1 megawatt-day (thermal)
http://ift.tt/1O2Mfab
 So from an efficiency standpoint small plutonium reactors look much better than isotope power. Arthur C. Clarke did not favor this.

"At the risk of making myself appear a reactionary old fogey, I do not believe that uranium and plutonium fuelled devices should be allowed off  the ground" 
http://ift.tt/1O2Mfaf


A sufficiently small reactor could be super-hardened (less than 1 meter in size) to be crashproof up to a couple hundred meters a second. Yes there are design tricks that can enable survival at greater speeds yet but part of me is thinking that subsonic light planes would be one thing but faster or bigger might be a very bad idea.
On the other hand this gives light planes global range.(In about 40 hours of flight time)  So proliferators suddenly have a global strike force. (assuming they can get through air defense)  http://ift.tt/1I2iuoT

 Hm. I am trying to keep this a civilian article and I keep running into military risks. Oh, well.

The source isotope for the plutonium-239 would be common natural or depleted uranium, ideally the depleted stuff.

http://ift.tt/1O2Mfah
About 95% of the depleted uranium produced until now is stored as uranium hexafluoride, (D)UF6, in steel cylinders in open air yards close to enrichment plants. Each cylinder contains up to 12.7 tonnes (or 14 US tons) of UF6. In the U.S. alone, 560,000 tonnes of depleted UF6 had accumulated by 1993. In 2005, 686,500 tonnes in 57,122 storage cylinders were located near Portsmouth, Ohio, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and Paducah, Kentucky.[154][155] The long-term storage of DUF6presents environmental, health, and safety risks because of its chemical instability. When UF6 is exposed to moist air, it reacts with the water in the air and produces UO2F2 (uranyl fluoride) and HF (hydrogen fluoride), both of which are highly soluble and toxic. Storage cylinders must be regularly inspected for signs of corrosion and leaks. The estimated lifetime of the steel cylinders is measured in decades.[156]
There have been several accidents involving uranium hexafluoride in the United States.[157] The vulnerability of DUF6storage cylinders to terrorist attack is apparently not the subject of public reports. However, the U.S. government has been converting DUF6 to solid uranium oxides for disposal.[158] Disposing of the whole DUF6 inventory could cost anywhere from 15 to 450 million dollars.[159]


Over a million tons of DU in the world could supply enough plutonium for 40 million 25kg class plutonium micro reactor  fuel loadings. (See below)

Assuming easy and quick extraction and processing, we can, since we are looking at compact power,  compare a burner reactor (not a breeder, the fusion breeds the Plutonium-239 for free, our job is just to burn the 239 as compactly and cheaply as  possible),. We base our model on the  MITEE (MInature ReacTor EnginE) reactor http://ift.tt/1Ri53qy 
the baseline MITEE engine achieves a specific impulse of ~1000 seconds, a thrust of 28,000 newtons, and a total mass of only 140 kilograms, including reactor, controls, and turbo-pump. Using higher performance nuclear fuels like U-233, engine mass can be reduced to as little as 80 kilograms. 
which theoretically could use around 25-50 kg of near bomb grade material as competition for unlimited Pu-238 isotope power.

Supposing we could obtain unlimited cheap isotopes  for micro reactors like this (140 kg or less for the nuclear core, possibly in the low ton range for a supercritical CO2 nuclear gas turbine) which use highly enriched fissionables are definite candidates to power anything a Cobalt-60 shielded system could, with finer power control--- but, alas, also having cesium-137 and strontium 90 produced internally as it fissions away.


http://ift.tt/1O2MeTJ
MITEE-B (MInature ReacTor EnginE - Bi-Modal) can deliver 1000s of kilograms of propulsive thrust when it operates in the NTP mode, and many kilowatts of continuous electric power when it operates in the electric generation mode.
. The high propulsive thrust NTP mode enables spacecraft to land and takeoff from the surface of a planet or moon, to hop to multiple widely separated sites on the surface, and virtually unlimited flight in planetary atmospheres. 
The continuous electric generation mode enables a spacecraft to replenish its propellant by processing in-situ resources, provide power for controls, instruments, and communications while in space and on the surface, and operate electric propulsion units. 
ix examples of unique and important missions enabled by the MITEE-B engine are described, including: (1) Pluto lander and sample return; (2) Europa lander and ocean explorer; (3) Mars Hopper; (4) Jupiter atmospheric flyer; (5) SunBurn hypervelocity spacecraft; and (6) He3 mining from Uranus. 

http://ift.tt/1O2MeTL
Representative design parameters for the baseline MITEE reactor are: 75MW(th) power level, 1000 second Isp, 100 kilogram mass, 10 MW/Liter fuel element power density, 39 cm core diameter/height. Total engine mass, including turbo pump assembly, nozzles, controls, and contingency, is estimated...
MITEE: A new nuclear engine concept for ultra fast, lightweight solar system exploration missionshttp://ift.tt/1O2MeTL [accessed Dec 31, 2015].


More MITEE links

http://ift.tt/1Ri55i5
http://ift.tt/1O2MeTN

As illustrated in Sidebar 2, the MITEE nuclear engine consists of a close-packed assembly (typically 37) beryllium pressure tubes. Each pressure tube contains an outer annular cylinder of 7LiH moderator, and an inner annular rod of perforated tungsten 235UO2 metal matrix composite fuel sheets. Cold hydrogen propellant flows downwards at ~100 K along the outer surface of the 7LiH moderator, then radially inwards through the moderator and the tungsten - UO2 fuel sheets. The hydrogen propellant emerges from the final fuel sheet at 3000 K, and then flows longitudinally down through a central hot gas channel to the exit nozzle at the end of the pressure tube. The MITEE engine is similar to the Particle Bed Reactor (PBR) engine which underwent development for defense applications (see Nuclear Thermal Propulsion), except that it is smaller and lighter, uses multiple pressure tube construction instead of a single pressure vessel, and tungsten -UO2 metal matrix fuel sheets instead of a packed bed of small HTGR type fuel particles. The main features of MITEE are summarized in Sidebar 3. 

http://ift.tt/1Ri55i9

With engine diagram

Another design family-- Adams atomic engines design philosophy http://ift.tt/VCKGqx

One can imagine variants of small designs that meet entire families of design needs-- some optimized for long life operation, some capable of reprocessing their own fuel in molten salt form over years, some optimized for exotic conditions.

In reality the first MITEE engine might cost a billion dollars, sourced in single digits they might cost a few hundred million dollars, but in sufficient production (high hundreds of thousands and up)  there is no engineering reason it would not be available for a million dollars or so plus fuel loading. Since the big assumption of this article is near-free isotopes we can pick out of the air these assumptions:
Power output of MITEE-- say 2 mw thermal, 500 kw electric.
cost of heat energy-- $4 million for 2 years, (4 megawatt years) $1 a watt year, stops cold

A megawatt year of electricity would be at 10 cents a kilowatt hour, $100 an hour or  $3504000. The three megawatt years of waste heat would be a bonus.
Rate = 1.24gm/day The unit of (thermal) megawatt-days per metric tonne of fuel,

Such a reactor could probably produce several megawatt years of power and at say $30000 a kilo of consumed uranium a reactor of that kind, designed by Powell and Maise, http://ift.tt/1Ri55i5  would be an amazing commercial power source. Its; very compactness is both its' strength and weakness-- it is portable within a delivery truck--good--the associated danger of 25 kg or so of bomb material seizable in one go--not so good-- remember the blue plutonium isotopes table above?  D-D Fusion generated plutonium 239 would be ideal bomb material-- supergrade material--and if we are designing the unit to be under a ton, it is by definition field portable.   Perhaps the answer is to security in transit plus require embedding it in concrete so it can't be moved inconspicuously when installed (but that of course kills mobile applications). Another answer is to require full time guards with offsite live monitoring but the problem with that is it only flags a determined attempt but does not stop it. The real problem is that we need a civilized world to deploy this marvelous technology in but that is a more speculative future than anything else in this article.

By contrast the advantage then of pure isotope power is that it is a known quantity with one half life in case of a release, not an ever changing mixture (the uncharitable say witches brew) of fission products. (with many resulting complications needing management in regular fission reactors, such as detailed here. http://ift.tt/1Ri53GS  and here http://ift.tt/1O2MeTR ) By contrast, pure isotope power has been called an atomic battery  in its; RTG form as an analogy to hint at its' simplicity of operation.

http://ift.tt/1ChDVmF
 Now if we had the Poul Anderson mattercast rock to isotope technology in real life we would have not merely free isotopes but a transporter and replicator and that is more than I want to focus on in a single article. but in real life if you want a minor rather than a major physics miracle the one you would wish for would be a pathway that could turn Uranium 238 under neutron bombardment not into Plutonium 239 but Plutonium 238,  That would be an utter game changer.

 As it is now pure 238 comes from pure neptunium 237, itself quite rare. Reactor grade Pu-238 exists but is entangled with Pu-239 and other isotopes. Easy isotope separation would be a different but welcome physics miracle that would cause a whole different article but that would also enable Uranium 235 so--proliferation again. Sigh.

http://ift.tt/1NTsXX4 
Pu-238 makes up only one or two percent, but it may be responsible for much of the short-term decay heat because of its short half-life relative to other plutonium isotopes. Reactor-grade plutonium is not useful for producing Pu-238 for RTGs because difficult isotopic separation would be needed.
Pure plutonium-238 is prepared by neutron irradiation of neptunium-237,one of the minor actinides that can be recovered from spent nuclear fuel during reprocessing, or by the neutron irradiation of americium in a reactor.[1] In both cases, the targets are subjected to a chemical treatment, including dissolution in nitric acid to extract the plutonium-238. A 100 kg sample of light water reactor fuel that has been irradiated for three years contains only about 700 grams of neptunium-237, and the neptunium must be extracted selectively. Significant amounts of pure Pu-238 could also be produced in a thorium fuel cycle.[2]

At 560 watts a kg, a ton would be 560 kilowatts, a respectable power. That would be 59 milligrams a curie so 59 tons for a gigacurie so 1 ton would be 16.94 megacuries  A megaton of 238 would therefore be 17 teracuries and for a generation give  560 gigawatts of portable power. (560 million kilowatts== enough by the above estimate to make 560 million portable car generators  to top up your electric car and then your house when that was done.).  Every generation or so we would need to process a few million tons of U238 (which we do for reactors anyway) and if this tech miracle existed we could have everything be either Pu-238 powered if portable or 235 powered in once through reactors. This might last for a thousand years or so but at some point we would hit limits. Alas, I know of no way to easily convert U-238 to Pu-238. Poul Anderson style mattercasting to turn common rock into isotopes of choice  is an entrancing vision but as far as we know is just a vision. (If you think about it that kind of conversion ability would be tantamount to the ability to turn any matter to energy and back again in which case-- why not just use the energy of ordinary matter  once it is destroyed and skip the wasted motion of turning it into isotopes!?)

In any case, fission is sufficiently dirty that it is a stage soon best passed by. We have enough fissionables on this planet (which is actually richer than many extraterrestrial bodies in fissionable deposits) to last for about 60,000 years in an all nuclear world at American rates of energy consumption.  But to do that will require mastering D-D fusion to produce Uranium 233 and Plutonium 239.  The most likely method to do that would be a variant of Project Pacer, to be covered in a future article.





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The Future Of Canal Transport--Take The Elevated 2: A Use For 4-6 Kilometer Tall Towers--Sky Canals And Superrapid Transport ETT

http://ift.tt/hZ0OVi


A guest article by Joseph Friedlander

This is  a sequel to http://ift.tt/WC0ZIv

In my post on supertall towers http://ift.tt/1hFDERK
it was obvious that there was an awkward spot in the low supertall tower range.  Above a kilometer (pretty much today's capability and below the tens of kilometers-- there were few compelling and unique applications.

Well, I was thinking about the canal post and the tower post and it was light bulb time. What if we could build a world-wide network of transport canals which would be at high altitude for level travel on barges as well as contain tubes for anything from super-rapid vacuum transit and other cool engineering uses?

I have been accused of designing hundred billion dollar butter churns. I think this is more like a 8 trillion dollar butter churn but  let's analyze the system to see where it goes.
A reminder about the prototype elevated canal (on mere tens of meters elevation to ground level) to save you going to the previous article: Highlighting in blue:

The Magdeburg  Canal Bridge in Germany might technically be called a navigable aquaduct but it differs in both feel and practicality from earlier efforts. Compare the smaller ones shown on this web page

with the Magdeburg water bridge and you will be comparing a toy tool with a professional power tool.




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQNBB-dAPy0



Germany: The Magdeburg Water Bridge - Wasserstraßenkreuz Magdeburg





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7CLwgJhNO



Facts about Magdeburg  Canal Bridge
  • six years to build
  • cost of 500 million Euros
  • 918 meters long
  • 545000 Euros per meter
  • Width   34 m
  • Water depth     4.25 m
  • Longest span    106 m
  • Total length       918 m (690 m over land and 228 m over water)
  • Clearance below           90.00 m x 6.25 m
  • 68,000 cubic meters of concrete and 24,000 metric tons of steel
  • Connects Hannover and Berlin directly
  • Connects Berlin’s inland harbor network and Rhine river ports.

This being Next Big Future, we take the obvious and intuitive step of wondering what would happen if this sort of thing became widespread.

Forget 6 years for a unique product to be engineered and built, and postulate Broad Group style mass manufacturing and rapid deployment.

As built the 4.25 water depth is larger than many areas with rough bottom on the Mississippi, for example. But the more reliable clearance on the bottom can enable larger cargoes with confidence.

Although our fantasies would like a super canal bridge able to float the heaviest supertankers, don’t forget a mere 34 m wide bargeway can float at a guess ten thousand ton barge clusters, depending how straight it is and if you operate it as a single lane vs double lane highway. Barges can be grouped and assembled into trains with multiple tugs providing huge power.

Assuming 5 meters a second throughput, 200 seconds to clear each kilometer span, and one 10,000 ton barge per interval, we see that a (for example) 100 kilometer stretch of such elevated canal could move a million tons of cargo each 6 hours. Individual barge clusters could be assembled that could hold not merely a Saturn 5, but a Nova or possibly a Sea Dragon. http://ift.tt/TfFIl1


As for the cost per meter, this was a unique project, with all charges piled on top, the engineering, the extra costs of a flagship project, and so forth. We can imagine 200,000 tons of structure a kilometer being built for 200 million Euro. This is still a lot but one can imagine the economic benefits to many small countries which could use a few hundred kilometers of such “navigable river’ say from a seaport to an interior city.

To go higher of course you would build locks that would be elevators...


OK, we've had our flashback. Now we can consider reader comments from the previous post.  Some pointed out correctly that there are other means than simple flooding locks to raise a ship.  The Falkirk wheel was specifically mentioned.
http://ift.tt/1ZIjDKS
WHAT IS THE MAXIMUM WEIGHT AND LENGTH OF BOAT THAT CAN BE TRANSPORTED BY THE WHEEL?
The allowable dimensions of the Falkirk Wheel is as follows:

Length 70' 0" 21.33m Beam 19' 8" 6.0m

Headroom 9' 0" 2.74m

Draught 4' 6" 1.37m


The caissons can hold 300 tonnes of water so I guess the maximum weight of a craft would be around 200 tonnes



Quite true, as an illustrative guide we can imagine a big pan with four cables on it into which a barge sails and which is then locked against drainage and then the four cables are reeled in till the barge is at the tower level-- 4 kilometers up!


A mention about the altitude:  Why did I pick 4-6 kilometers altitude?  As an optimax:  If you have a worldwide network of 4 km high pillar supported elevated canals, you want a height that will allow essentially straight line travel between major nodes in the network of cities. Or at least great circle routes.  If you look at a map of elevations you will see that above 4 kilometers there are essentially two big obstacles in the world-- the high Andes and the high Himalayas-- like islands to be avoided.  There are individual peaks elsewhere but no huge ranges that high. Why not build 9 km high and avoid every possible obstacle and butter our toast on board a barge overlooking Mount Everest?  Um, because then the system is over twice as expensive. I'd rather have a hugely more extensive network than a brute force conquest of the Earth just to prove an engineering point. Also at 6 km you can just kinda breathe if you don't exert yourself, at 8 km plus you are in the death zone without oxygen to supplement your breathing. We could build with iron easily up to 4 km, to 8 km would involve tapering because iron's strength of materials limits are being reached. And so on. Extreme altitude is not free. It could be that a 3 km altitude route can be found across most of the high traffic world, or even 2 km (if you build across the oceans).  Certainly an equatorial routing, while adding to the kilometer count, would enable wonderful ballistic paths to many space trajectories. The actual length of the 6 km segments might be quite limited. 
http://ift.tt/1PFOeWs


There is a company named ETT http://www.et3.com/  that has posted online dreams of a world wide vacuum tube network. 


http://ift.tt/1ZIjDKY

There is a popular video by Next Media; (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McpWcn-1RZU ) that claims to be about our Evacuated Tube Transport (tm) technology; however the next media video has many gross inaccuracies. Next Media never contacted us or consulted with us about the production of the video, and use of our tradename was not authorized.
Some of the next media inaccuracies are:
The capsules are depicted larger than the optimal 1.3m (51in) diameter X 4.95m (16.24ft) length; The tubes are shown larger than the optimal 1.5m (5ft;) diameter; The video fails to show the airlocks that prevent air from entering the system; The video indicates the use of impractical routes crossing large expanses of ocean; The video uses our tradenames without attribution.
https://youtu.be/9UzlDe--Ofo

http://ift.tt/1ZIjG9o
http://ift.tt/1PFOeWx
ETT Patent
http://ift.tt/1ZIjDKZ

Notice the 4000 mph projected top speed-- in a magnetic levitation vacuum system --this picture from Salter (below) not ETT



you can actually go to orbit or even escape velocity (if you don't mind plenty of Gs and superwide curves) because you get regenerative power back in braking.  And if you have an escape tube pointed to the sky, during idle times (power supply  and tube safety considerations) and in remote locations (sonic boom considerations )  you can launch huge uploads directly to space for very little added cost. That is the real killer app of this kind of network-- blasting through the atmosphere at escape velocity is far easier going from vacuum to 4-6 km altitude than trying to do it at sea level. (at the upper end of that range you are above half the atmosphere by mass)

Note in the 1970s there was a concept caled PlanetTran detailed here http://ift.tt/1k0nnRX  which was the work of Robert Salter

This should not be confused with the San Francisco website of the same name http://ift.tt/1ZIjE1j 
Planet Tran brings you SmartTransport: reliable, convenient and eco-friendly chauffeur-driven transportation in greater Boston and the San Francisco Bay area.

which brings to mind Jerry Pournelle's definition of a dark age as not that you know you could no longer build that but you never knew it was once possible.  As you'll see from the map below, once it would theoretically have been possible to travel from Boston to the Bay area in 21 minutes. 

 On the general subject of an old techie grousing I remember when Beechcraft came out with a light plane called the Starship. http://ift.tt/1PFOdln    No. Sorry. You want a starship, build a starship.--and it better be capable of a hop to Alpha C or you'll be hearing from me. Don't call a light plane a starship. Don't call a limousine service PlanetTran unless you are chauffering around Supercar http://ift.tt/1LIPKTV.  But I suppose I digress...


More on the vaccum subway concepts of Robert Slater  http://ift.tt/1dVwsyn

http://ift.tt/1ZIjE1r
http://ift.tt/1PFOdlq


http://ift.tt/1NhmCpY Space launch version note that 6 km is their selected exit height--
In the reference design, the exit is on the surface of a mountain peak of 6,000 metres (20,000 ft) altitude, where 8.78 kilometres per second (5.46 mi/s) launch velocity at a 10 degree angle takes cargo capsules to low earth orbit when combined with a small rocket burn providing 0.63 kilometres per second (0.39 mi/s) for orbit circularization. With a bonus from Earth's rotation if firing east, the extra speed, well beyond nominal orbital velocity, compensates for losses during ascent including 0.8 kilometres per second (0.50 mi/s) from atmospheric drag.[1][13]
A 40-ton cargo craft, 2 metres (6 ft 7 in) diameter and 13 metres (43 ft) length, would experience briefly the effects of atmospheric passage. With an effective drag coefficient of 0.09, peak deceleration for the mountain-launched elongated projectile is momentarily 20 g but halves within the first 4 seconds and continues to decrease as it quickly passes above the bulk of the remaining atmosphere.
In the first moments after exiting the launch tube, the heating rate with an optimal nose shape is around 30 kW/cm2 at thestagnation point, though much less over most of the nose, but drops below 10 kW/cm2 within a few seconds.[1] Transpiration water cooling is planned, briefly consuming up to  100 liters/m2 of water per second. Several percent of the projectile's mass in water is calculated to suffice.[1]

Gen-2 variant of the StarTram is supposed to be for reusable manned capsules, intended to be low g-force, 2 to 3 g acceleration in the launch tube and an elevated exit at such high altitude (22 kilometres (14 mi)) that peak aerodynamic deceleration becomes  1g.[1] Though NASA test pilots have handled multiple times those g-forces,[17] the low acceleration is intended to allow eligibility to the broadest spectrum of the general public.
With such relatively slow acceleration, the Gen-2 system requires 1,000 to 1,500 kilometres (620 to 930 mi) length. A 280 megaamp current in ground cables creates a magnetic field of 30 Gauss strength at 22 kilometres (14 mi) above sea level (somewhat less above local terrain depending on site choice), while cables on the elevated final portion of the tube carry 14 megaamps in the opposite direction, generating a repulsive force of 4 tons per meter; it is claimed that this would keep the 2 ton/meter structure strongly pressing up on its angled tethers, a tensile structure on grand scale.[3][21] In the example of niobium-titanium superconductor carrying 2 x 105 amps per cm2, the levitated platform would have 7 cables, each 23 cm2 (3.6 sq in) of conductor cross-section when including copper stabilizer.[4]
The Generation 2 goal is $13,000 per person. Up to 4 million people could be sent to orbit per decade per Gen-2 facility if as estimated
http://ift.tt/GGPTbY  Startram website. Note the inventors also worked on the MITEE concept for nuclear rocket engines http://ift.tt/1PFOfdf


At highest speeds the G forces in turns would have been a real consideration.  By the way about the time of the 1991 Los Angeles riots my joke about the future of civilization was something like this,"Do you wonder at what an amazing culture we live in? You can flee underground in LA to escape the riots and be mugged and left for dead just outside the Times Square Station a mere 21 minutes later!" 
Slater's map above was based on straight-line routes and tunnels but I am pretty sure with an elevated tubeway under the elevated barge canal you could get even better routings between major traffic modes.


Note that as Salter correctly notes a chord of the Earth's circumference between  LA and New York would have a nadir 200 miles beneath the Earth's surface at midpoint-- or 200 miles above on high towers. Maybe another article-- what it comes down to is these are straight line routes but not true ballistic courses and there is considerable G force in cornering. At 5500 mph a 400 mile turn will give you a 1 G force.



 5200 2600 cubic foot a minute roughing pumps would be needed to maintain the vacuum over 5000 miles.

Here is a picture from the ETT  patent showing near great circle routes which I have modified a bit for illustrative purposes Notice that there are great circle routes available between India and China that avoid the 4 km plus area of the Himalayas.
Notice too that even though they avoid the oceans if you are building 4 km high towers there is no serious problem to building them to the bottom of the ocean (various buoyancy options are available subsurface so the height/strength of material problems begin not from the bottom of the sea but when you break surface. On the other hand you need to shield against wave action so nothing is free)
Why not go down to ocean level and tow the barges there?  Well, if you have the postulated network you avoid the storms and collision problems at the ocean surface.

This is not a trivial concern in heavy winter seas https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lroRRje14rY  Even if you had the icing at altitude you would not have the heaving that could break your ship in two in the right circumstances. (But that wind at 4-6 km would be wicked cold...)


 If the network flows smoothly and quickly there are often advantages to staying in the network. As I said in the first article


As built the 4.25 water depth is larger than many areas with rough bottom on the Mississippi, for example. But the more reliable clearance on the bottom can enable larger cargoes with confidence.

Although our fantasies would like a super canal bridge able to float the heaviest supertankers, don’t forget a mere 34 m wide bargeway can float at a guess ten thousand ton barge clusters, depending how straight it is and if you operate it as a single lane vs double lane highway. Barges can be grouped and assembled into trains with multiple tugs providing huge power.

Assuming 5 meters a second throughput, 200 seconds to clear each kilometer span, and one 10,000 ton barge per interval, we see that a (for example) 100 kilometer stretch of such elevated canal could move a million tons of cargo each 6 hours. 

10000 km across the ocean could then theoretically move a billion tons of cargo plus a week-- but there are only maximum 10s of billions a year moved theoretically so yes one canal across the ocean could theoretically move everything that has to be moved. The question is how cheaply but remember that we might be able to use electric power in place of petroleum for propulsion.

data on canal depths and navigability for barges
http://ift.tt/1PFOftx

Class Tonnage (t) Draught (m) Length (m) Width (m) Air Draught (m) Description
Class III 1,000
Class IV 1,000–1,500 2.5 80–85 9.5 5.2–7.0 Johann Welker[1]
Class Va 1,500–3,000 2.5–2.8 95–110 11.4 5.2–7.0–9.1 Large Rhine[1]
Class VIb 6,400–12,000 3.9 140 15 9.1 [1]
Class VII 14,500–27,000 2.5–4.5 275–285 33.0–34.2 9.1 [1]



http://ift.tt/1PFOftB
Classification Tonnage (t) Length (m) Breadth (m) Draught (m) Air Draft (m) Notes
RA 5.5 2.00 0.50 2.00 "Open boat"
RB 9.5 3.00 1.00 3.25 Cabin cruiser
RC 15.0 4.00 1.50 4.00 "Motor yacht"
RD 15.0 4.00 2.10 30.00 "Sailing boat"
I 250–400 38.5 5.05 1.80–2.20 3.70 "Péniche"
II 400–650 50.0–55.0 6.60 2.50 3.70–4.70 Euro-barge
III 650–1,000 67.0–80.0 8.20 2.50 4.70 "Gustav Koenigs"
IV 1,000–1,500 80.0–85.0 9.50 2.50 4.50; 6.70 "Johann Welker"
Va 1,500–3,000 95.0–110.0 11.40 2.50–4.50 4.95; 6.70; 8.80 "Large Rhine"
Vb 3,200–6,000 172.0–185.0 11.40 2.50–4.50 4.95; 6,70; 8,80 1×2 convoy
VIa 3,200–6,000 95.0–110.0 22.80 2.50–4.50 6.70; 8.80 2×1 convoy
VIb 6,400–12,000 185.0–195.0 22.80 2.50–4.50 6.70; 8.80 2×2 convoy
VIc 9,600–18,000 270–280 22.80 2.50–4.50 8.80 2×3 convoy
9,600–18,000 195–200 33.00–34.20 2.50–4.50 8.80 3×2 convoy

VII 14,500–27,000 285 33.00–34.20 2.50–4.50 8.80 3×3 convoy










Wiki: This map of shipping routes illustrates the relative density of commercial shipping in the world's oceans
Now imagine how that would change if point to point routing between major supply/demand nodes were possible.

Reader  Andrew Jones correctly pointed in the original article showing possible canal routings around the world--

Why nothing in the Southwest. I am pretty sure those dry states would appreciate some extra water and think it mighty nice to be connected to that Midwest area. There is some heavy mining in those areas, especially construction grade stones, which is not feathery light.

  • The simple answer is that in the previous article I was focusing mostly on the possibility and starting slow to get peoples minds used to it. But the key problem with a high altitude system is not merely altitude (high tower design, elevator issues) but also temperature and icing issues, exactly like those old 40's and 50's movies where the propeller plane flying at low altitude (4-6 km encounters icing and is running out of de-icing fluid)-- This is not as big a deal as on an aircraft because you don't need to worry about
  • friction and drag (increased fuel consumption) unless of course the canal surface freezes up-- thus the heating/cover canopy.
  • loss of airspeed and lift and maneuverability
  • increase of weight from ice

but you do need to worry about loss of engine power if using combustion for fuel as well as general icing issues (walking a slippery deck)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9I40DQcK_6U

Without heating of the canal (and an overhead canopy to cut down radiation into space at night you would get this kind of icing (not to mention freezing of the canal itself) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhxVJXDb-wA  


Reader Chris Phoenix suggested
2 years ago
OK, we have an idea, now let's optimize it. 1) Don't use tugs - use mechanical linkages to the side (cables, rows of gear teeth). More efficient traction. 2) Water has one main advantage. Low static friction. It has several major disadvantages: It's heavy, and it has high dynamic friction, and it's corrosive, and it promotes growth of unwanted organisms, and it freezes. So why not just build a surface for an air-bearing? Those use very little energy, can support immense weight, and can sustain far higher speeds. Basically, I'm suggesting building tracks for hovercraft - except that the hovercraft would be optimized for high load and low skirt leakage. A barge is very low-tech - just an open-topped box, in principle. But the devil is in the details, including maintenance. An air-bearing slab would be pretty low tech also, by today's standards. Or we could turn it around, and build the air supply into the surface, like an air hockey table. Then anything flat you put on the surface would float. Simple sheets of iron, like those they use as temporary patches in road work, could be your "barges."

Yes, around 1962 CERN was moving very large machines on air bearings, but because of the icing problem at altitude it was not clear to me we could keep the roadway effectively level. If totally enclosed, yes. If open-- no and I am not sure what the final configuration could be. 
We can imagine a dehumidified enclosed pathway at altitude but I am thinking of worsecasing, such as weather damage that rips off the roof at one point and that icing incident blocks the canal till you clear it.  If that can be avoided We can imagine covered roadways of such precision that the sea barges are floated to them then lowered on the 'hoverbarges' which are elevator-ed to altitude. That hockey table like surface by the way was used for a hospital bed to 'float' burn victims.  A lot of clever thinking went into that...

Assuming it is a canal--if I am wrong that's a whole different article--with the superhigh canal system  we can go in straight lines from most destinations to most destinations. The Western USA may indeed be crossed back and forth with many routes to bring access to vast amounts of minerals..

Interesting data on canals and shipping  in general


 http://ift.tt/1PFOftF
http://ift.tt/1m8rA6E
http://ift.tt/1PFOftx



http://ift.tt/1PFOftJ
http://ift.tt/1ZIjEyy


So what is this system so far? It is far more involved than the system proposed for individual countries in the last article.

  • Supertall towers in vast numbers elevating bargeway canals world wide
  • Molten salt reactors and electricity cables (superconducting?) to distribute power in a worldwide network. The waste heat helps keep the canal deiced (note that it may still have to be enclosed with an arched roof) And the inter-hemispheric power exchange makes possible load levelling around the world.
  • Great circle routing to give the capability of suspending vacuum subways underneath the canal And several space launch stretches of the network optimized between orbital track, (for example to low equatorial orbit) power availability and network idle spaces (where good launch times are available a good fraction of the time without interfering with the network flow)
  • Note also we use nuclear power for intercontinental oceanic and air travel and space travel without actually putting risky nuclear motors on the air vehicles themselves. This is a much better solution for safety engineering than trying to make a nuclear powered launch vehicle. It also cuts substantially into domestic air and surface travel, greatly conserving petroleum resources. (If you want a justification for spending $8 trillion on this that is basically it)

Now we come to questions of cost. The original prototype with all the custom expenses of a unique engineering project was 500 million Euros for a kilometer with all charges piled on top, the engineering, the extra costs of a flagship project, and so forth.

Forget 6 years for a unique product to be engineered and built, and postulate Broad Group style mass manufacturing and rapid deployment.

Supposing for a second that price held for 4-6 km high towers (in mass production and well amortized) then we would be looking at 8 trillion Euro for a 16000 km system.

Supposing the cost were not 500 million euros per kilometer but 5 times lower still (through a combination of vastly cheaper raw materials and huge mass production efficiencies) then such a map as we see in this article might be practical. 80000 kilometers of canal then would cost 8 trillion Euro for such a network.

Remember from the first article that the average height of the continents is a mere a mere 840 meters 2760 feet http://ift.tt/1PFOghk and we can understand that in each continent there will be numerous local systems interfacing with the interconinental system at equal speed but lower altitude. One can see the North European plain having hypersonic transport from Paris to Moscow, but also a line that can go intercontinental nearby, perhaps in London.  One can imagine the horsetrading that will go on if this network is ever actually built.  

As for material considerations We might imagine a pair of towers each 300 meters each together massing 100 kilotons or about 300 kilotons a kilometer. For 10000 kilometer stretch, 3 billion tons of steel. Remember that this is a multi decade infrastructure build and you will see that that is not out of the question. Especially as China completes her infrastructure build and looks for new markets for metal.



 The map is based on the NGDC world elevation map at http://ift.tt/1ZIjEOO This was the low altitude map from the first article

(For geography fanatics a 13 megabyte enlargement of the underlay map is available at http://ift.tt/1pAPlW1

and here is a 2-4 km altitude optimized routing--note the equatorial stretch between Brazil and Singapore-- frankly optimized for the space launch route (no you don't need that length, but if you need a transoceanic route with good sunlight anyway...) the routes are debatable.

Here is the ETT map again http://www.et3.com/ showing a speed optimized route suitable for 4-6 km altitude--I frankly think it is easier to go across the equatorial ocean than to battle permafrost in foundations across Siberia but I don't want to insult our Russian Alaskan and Canadian readers so I have included the routes even though a hub and spoke across the oceans may turn out to be the best routing of all.  Who knows? The idea of the concept is to get us thinking.

{Rather than trying for a high altitude route across Siberia the best Siberian development plan would be a series of low-altitude towers working with the natural river system and connecting resources to points on those rivers.  Such a system could aid enormously in developing the mineral wealth of Siberia at about 1% the cost of a grand plan. But that is another article.) 


 In the last part of this series we discuss an out of this world idea that makes this one look tame---- the building of liquid sodium elevated canals on the Moon itself. Of course  we would need the space launch system in this second part to build it:)

When will the next great era of canal building begin?

If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks
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tapio-ca: “A selected monk” Photograph by Christopher Martin

http://ift.tt/1iRSeAO


tapio-ca:

“A selected monk”

Photograph by Christopher Martin


Reposted via F&O Fabforgottennobility

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Estimates of Global reductions in mercury emissions providing health benefits

http://ift.tt/hZ0OVi
Mercury pollution is a global problem with local consequences: Emissions from coal-fired power plants and other sources travel around the world through the atmosphere, eventually settling in oceans and waterways, where the pollutant gradually accumulates in fish. Consumption of mercury-contaminated seafood leads to increased risk for cardiovascular disease and cognitive impairments.

In the past several years, a global treaty and a domestic policy have been put in place to curb mercury emissions. But how will such policies directly benefit the U.S.?

In a new study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, MIT researchers report that global action on reducing mercury emissions will lead to twice the economic benefits for the U.S., compared with domestic action, by 2050. However, those in the U.S. who consume locally caught freshwater fish, rather than seafood from the global market, will benefit more from domestic rather than international mercury regulations.

The researchers calculated the projected U.S. economic benefits from the Minamata Convention on Mercury, a global treaty adopted in 2013 to reduce mercury emissions worldwide, compared with the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS), a national regulation set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to reduce mercury pollution from the country’s coal-fired power plants.

Overall, while both policies are projected to lead to roughly the same amount of reductions in mercury deposited on U.S. soil compared to a no-policy case, Americans’ consumption of mercury by 2050 are estimated to be 91 percent lower under the global treaty, compared to 32 percent under U.S. policy alone. The researchers say these numbers reflect the U.S. commercial fish market, 90 percent of which is sourced from Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins — regions that are heavily influenced by emissions from non-U.S. sources, including China.

From their projections of reduced mercury consumption, the researchers estimated health impacts to the U.S. population under both policies, then translated these impacts into economic benefits. They characterized these in two ways:

1. projected lifetime benefits from an individual’s reduced exposure to mercury, including willingness to pay for lowering the risk of a fatal heart attack, cost savings from avoided medical care, and increased earnings; and

2. economy-wide benefits, or the associated productivity gains of a national labor force with improved IQ and fewer heart attacks, as a result of reduced exposure to mercury.

Based on these calculations, the team estimated that by 2050, emissions reductions under the Minamata Convention on Mercury would lead to $339 billion in lifetime benefits and $104 billion in economy-wide benefits in the U.S., compared to $147 billion and $43 billion, respectively, from MATS. The global treaty, then, should lead to more than twice the benefits projected from the domestic policy.




PNAS - Benefits of mercury controls for the United States

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Reposted via Next Big Future