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The Whitehouse has issued a press release with details of the parameters of the nuclear framework deal.
The US is trying to go for 12+ month to nuclear breakout instead of 2-3 months. Breakout meaning how long to get the first bomb from the point of following the agreement and when they stopped following and go for the bomb.
Once breakout occurs then it is about 25 bombs per year based on modified calculations from Robert Zubrin.
Zubrin had calculated the enrichment based on 6500 centrifuges. The deal is for 5,060.
There may also needs to be slight modification for 3.67 enriched starting point instead 4%. This could drop it to about 20 bombs per year.
Enrichment
* Iran has agreed to reduce by approximately two-thirds its installed centrifuges. Iran will go from having about 19,000 installed today to 6,104 installed under the deal, with only 5,060 of these enriching uranium for 10 years. All 6,104 centrifuges will be IR-1s, Iran’s first-generation centrifuge.
* Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium over 3.67 percent for at least 15 years.
* Iran has agreed to reduce its current stockpile of about 10,000 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to 300 kg of 3.67 percent LEU for 15 years.
* All excess centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure will be placed in IAEA monitored storage and will be used only as replacements for operating centrifuges and equipment.
* Iran has agreed to not build any new facilities for the purpose of enriching uranium for 15 years.
* Iran’s breakout timeline – the time that it would take for Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one weapon – is currently assessed to be 2 to 3 months. That timeline will be extended to at least one year, for a duration of at least ten years, under this framework.
Read more »
Reposted via Next Big Future
The Whitehouse has issued a press release with details of the parameters of the nuclear framework deal.
The US is trying to go for 12+ month to nuclear breakout instead of 2-3 months. Breakout meaning how long to get the first bomb from the point of following the agreement and when they stopped following and go for the bomb.
Once breakout occurs then it is about 25 bombs per year based on modified calculations from Robert Zubrin.
Zubrin had calculated the enrichment based on 6500 centrifuges. The deal is for 5,060.
There may also needs to be slight modification for 3.67 enriched starting point instead 4%. This could drop it to about 20 bombs per year.
Enrichment
* Iran has agreed to reduce by approximately two-thirds its installed centrifuges. Iran will go from having about 19,000 installed today to 6,104 installed under the deal, with only 5,060 of these enriching uranium for 10 years. All 6,104 centrifuges will be IR-1s, Iran’s first-generation centrifuge.
* Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium over 3.67 percent for at least 15 years.
* Iran has agreed to reduce its current stockpile of about 10,000 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to 300 kg of 3.67 percent LEU for 15 years.
* All excess centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure will be placed in IAEA monitored storage and will be used only as replacements for operating centrifuges and equipment.
* Iran has agreed to not build any new facilities for the purpose of enriching uranium for 15 years.
* Iran’s breakout timeline – the time that it would take for Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one weapon – is currently assessed to be 2 to 3 months. That timeline will be extended to at least one year, for a duration of at least ten years, under this framework.
Read more »
Reposted via Next Big Future
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