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Here is the 463 page comprehensive list of population projection tables from the UN 2012 population projection.
Russia's Muslim population has a slightly higher birth rate and there are more Muslim's entering Russia via immigration. There has been a backlash against the immigration of Muslims into Russia.
There is an estimated 17.5 million Muslims in Russia.
The UN Medium population project for Russia assumes that the fertility recovers from the 1.3 to 1.4 level of today back to about 1.89. This ends up with about 101 million Russians in about 2090 [if life expectancy increases about on pace with what is expected for the rest of the world. So even in the medium variant scenario, if the Muslim population in Russia increased to 53 million then it would be a majority by about 2070. A fertility rate of about 2.3 would do it, even if all immigration of muslims was stopped.
The low variant, fertility is projected to remain 0.5 children below the fertility in the medium variant over most of the projection period. By 2020-2025, fertility in the low variant is therefore half a child lower than that of the medium variant. That is, countries reaching a total fertility of 2.1 children per woman in the medium variant have a total fertility of 1.6 children per woman in the low variant.
In Russia's case it means that fertility stays around current low levels.
In the low population variant if the Muslims increase to about 30 million in Russia then they will become the majority of the population by about 2090.
Read more »
Reposted via Next Big Future
Here is the 463 page comprehensive list of population projection tables from the UN 2012 population projection.
Russia's Muslim population has a slightly higher birth rate and there are more Muslim's entering Russia via immigration. There has been a backlash against the immigration of Muslims into Russia.
There is an estimated 17.5 million Muslims in Russia.
The UN Medium population project for Russia assumes that the fertility recovers from the 1.3 to 1.4 level of today back to about 1.89. This ends up with about 101 million Russians in about 2090 [if life expectancy increases about on pace with what is expected for the rest of the world. So even in the medium variant scenario, if the Muslim population in Russia increased to 53 million then it would be a majority by about 2070. A fertility rate of about 2.3 would do it, even if all immigration of muslims was stopped.
The low variant, fertility is projected to remain 0.5 children below the fertility in the medium variant over most of the projection period. By 2020-2025, fertility in the low variant is therefore half a child lower than that of the medium variant. That is, countries reaching a total fertility of 2.1 children per woman in the medium variant have a total fertility of 1.6 children per woman in the low variant.
In Russia's case it means that fertility stays around current low levels.
In the low population variant if the Muslims increase to about 30 million in Russia then they will become the majority of the population by about 2090.
Read more »
Reposted via Next Big Future
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