Reposted via F&O Forgotten Nobility
Friday, December 30, 2016
Thursday, December 29, 2016
Predictions of human intelligence possible from DNA alone as we near effective embryo selection and gene editing of humans
http://ift.tt/2aB80ot
Stephen Hsu at Infoproc reports that we now know enough about the genetic architecture of human intelligence to make predictions based on DNA alone. While it is a well-established scientific fact that variations in human cognitive ability are influenced by genes, many have doubted whether scientists would someday decipher the genetic code sufficiently to be able to identify individuals with above or below average intelligence using only their genotypes. That day is nearly upon us.
The figures below are taken from a recently published paper (see bottom), which examined genomic prediction on a longitudinal cohort of ~1000 individuals of European ancestry, followed from childhood into adulthood. (The study, based in Dunedin, New Zealand, extends over 40 years.) The genomic predictor (or polygenic score) was constructed using SSGAC GWAS analysis of a sample of more than one hundred thousand individuals. (Already, significantly more powerful predictors are available, based on much larger sample size.) In machine learning terminology, the training set includes over a hundred thousand individuals, and the validation set roughly one thousand.
These graphs show that individuals with higher polygenic score exhibit, on average, higher IQ scores than individuals with lower polygenic scores.
Effective embryo selection is nearing
The maximum amount of IQ gain if screening allowed for optimal selection
Chickens have become physically larger because of breeding and farming methods
Read more »
Reposted via Next Big Future
Stephen Hsu at Infoproc reports that we now know enough about the genetic architecture of human intelligence to make predictions based on DNA alone. While it is a well-established scientific fact that variations in human cognitive ability are influenced by genes, many have doubted whether scientists would someday decipher the genetic code sufficiently to be able to identify individuals with above or below average intelligence using only their genotypes. That day is nearly upon us.
The figures below are taken from a recently published paper (see bottom), which examined genomic prediction on a longitudinal cohort of ~1000 individuals of European ancestry, followed from childhood into adulthood. (The study, based in Dunedin, New Zealand, extends over 40 years.) The genomic predictor (or polygenic score) was constructed using SSGAC GWAS analysis of a sample of more than one hundred thousand individuals. (Already, significantly more powerful predictors are available, based on much larger sample size.) In machine learning terminology, the training set includes over a hundred thousand individuals, and the validation set roughly one thousand.
These graphs show that individuals with higher polygenic score exhibit, on average, higher IQ scores than individuals with lower polygenic scores.
Effective embryo selection is nearing
- The cost of embryo selection is modest, at $1500 + $200 per embryo, with the sequencing cost projected to drop rapidly. Embryo selection cost will drop in future
- Embryo selection was unprofitable in late 2015 (mean: -$673) in the USA under the lowest estimate of the value of an IQ point, but profitable under the highest (mean: $4763). The main constraints on selection profitability is the polygenic score; under the highest value, the NPV EVPI of a perfect SNP predictor is $27b and the EVSI per education/SNP sample is $71k
- Selection can be made much more profitable by selecting on multiple phenotype traits; selection scales near-linearly with equally-valuable traits, and considering an example using 7 traits (IQ / height / BMI / diabetes / ADHD / bipolar / schizophrenia), there is a gain of 2.8x over IQ alone ($4977 to about $14130)
Read more »
Reposted via Next Big Future
Amazon patents blimp warehouse and billboards that use gliding drones for near instant fulfillment of sales
http://ift.tt/2aB80ot
Amazon has been awarded a patent for a giant flying warehouse that acts as a launchpad for drones to deliver items within minutes.
The U.S. e-commerce giant described plans for an "airborne fulfillment center" (AFC) such as an airship or blimp that would float at an altitude of around 45,000. The airship will be stocked with lots of products.
When a customer places an order, a drone or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) will fly down and deliver the package. Amazon insists that this would require little power because the drone would be gliding down rather than having to take off and land.
Amazon's filing reveals several uses for the warehouse blimp. One example is at a football match where customers may want certain items such as food or merchandise. Ahead of the game, the AFC could stock up on items and deploy these during the game with drones when they are ordered. The airship could also be used as a giant advertising board, allowing customers to order the items on display. All of these can be ordered "within minutes".
The drones would be able to communicate with each other via a mesh network to give information such as weather and route. UAVs could also recharge on the airship.
Amazon's filing explains that the blimp would remain in the air and be refueled and replenished using a shuttle. This could be a smaller aircraft capable of docking onto the AFC and unloading products as well as fuel.
Medical, police and Military Applications
The Amazon blimp and drone delivery would be as close as might get to Star Trek replicators and teleportation for near instant provisioning.
At 45000 it would be 8.5 miles straight down. Everything within 10 miles or so would be about a 13 miles flight.
If it takes 5 minutes for an order to selected from within the blimp.
20 minute deliveries should be possible.
Emergency deliveries of medicines or defibrillators could be possible within 11 minutes. The emergency items could have priority position within the warehouse for less than 1 minute selection. Then special faster drones could delivery those urgent items.
130 mile per hour emergency drones could make 13 mile flights in 10 minutes.
Read more » 
Reposted via Next Big Future
Amazon has been awarded a patent for a giant flying warehouse that acts as a launchpad for drones to deliver items within minutes.
The U.S. e-commerce giant described plans for an "airborne fulfillment center" (AFC) such as an airship or blimp that would float at an altitude of around 45,000. The airship will be stocked with lots of products.
When a customer places an order, a drone or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) will fly down and deliver the package. Amazon insists that this would require little power because the drone would be gliding down rather than having to take off and land.
Amazon's filing reveals several uses for the warehouse blimp. One example is at a football match where customers may want certain items such as food or merchandise. Ahead of the game, the AFC could stock up on items and deploy these during the game with drones when they are ordered. The airship could also be used as a giant advertising board, allowing customers to order the items on display. All of these can be ordered "within minutes".
The drones would be able to communicate with each other via a mesh network to give information such as weather and route. UAVs could also recharge on the airship.
Amazon's filing explains that the blimp would remain in the air and be refueled and replenished using a shuttle. This could be a smaller aircraft capable of docking onto the AFC and unloading products as well as fuel.
Medical, police and Military Applications
The Amazon blimp and drone delivery would be as close as might get to Star Trek replicators and teleportation for near instant provisioning.
At 45000 it would be 8.5 miles straight down. Everything within 10 miles or so would be about a 13 miles flight.
If it takes 5 minutes for an order to selected from within the blimp.
20 minute deliveries should be possible.
Emergency deliveries of medicines or defibrillators could be possible within 11 minutes. The emergency items could have priority position within the warehouse for less than 1 minute selection. Then special faster drones could delivery those urgent items.
130 mile per hour emergency drones could make 13 mile flights in 10 minutes.
Read more »
Reposted via Next Big Future
Wednesday, December 28, 2016
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)